Scientific interpretation - Unpredictable work: a stress factor not to be overlooked

A Global-Watch scientific interpretation by

Patrice Daneau, PhD candidate in business administration (DBA) at the School of Management of the Université de Sherbrooke.  

This initiative is supported by the Chief Scientist of Quebec with the Fonds de recherche du Québec.

Xavier, an executive in a large technology company, feels overwhelmed by his work and finds that his evenings and weekends are no longer enough to recharge his batteries. As soon as he recognizes his warning signs, he consults a health professional, who asks him to describe a typical day at work.

Xavier hesitates for a moment, then replies:

"It's hard to say... it's different every day. What I plan to do in the morning is rarely what I actually do. Needs and priorities can change quickly. I'm constantly dealing with emergencies, unexpected requests, and meetings added at the last minute... I'm running around not knowing what's going to happen. It's not all over when I get home: I think about the tasks that are lying around, what I could have done if I'd known, and what might be waiting for me tomorrow..."

Xavier’s experience highlights a contemporary psychosocial risk that remains insufficiently studied in research and underestimated in organizations: the unpredictability of work, which is highlighted in a 2022 study by Schoellbauer and colleagues.

What does the study reveal?

1. The unpredictability of work is a stress factor, particularly common in knowledge-based jobs such as administrative, professional (e.g. HR consultant), and managerial positions.
2. When work unpredictability is perceived as high, it is detrimental to daily well-being because of the tension felt and the difficulty of returning to a state of serenity after work, posing a risk to health in the longer term.

What do we mean by…?

• Stress factor: perceived discrepancy between the actual situation and what is desired.
• Work unpredictability: inability to anticipate the tasks and activities to be carried out during the working day, including the methods, time required, and potential problems associated with these tasks.
• State of serenity: a feeling of calm, tranquility, and peace, with little concern for past or future events.
• Strain: negative reactions to a stressor, manifested as irritability, exhaustion, and nervousness.  

Why can unpredictable work be stressful?

• Amplification of the perceived gap between the actual and desired situation.
• Perceived lack of control over work due to inability to anticipate, plan, and make optimal decisions.
• Erosion of sense of competence due to difficulty in preparing adequately and anticipating successful task completion.
• Increased cognitive load due to continuous efforts to adjust to unforeseen circumstances.

How does unpredictability affect everyday well-being and pose a health risk?

1. Persistent stress: the stress reaction continues beyond the working day until the perceived mismatch is resolved.
2. Continuous effort: the brain is constantly looking for solutions to the lack of control, the feeling of not being up to the task and its excessive cognitive load.
3. Pathogenic process: A persistent lack of serenity impairs recovery and fosters chronic stress, increasing the risk of health issues such as burnout.